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Post by huangken on Dec 1, 2011 19:16:55 GMT -5
wt.ag/ucd4ZVVillian ：18/15/5.1 , cold call preflop on btn = 17% raise cbet 31% , hands ~ 80 I think villian's range on the flop is pretty wide ,so I call . On the turn we still have a lot of money behind , even this card is a blank , I still have no idea what the best action is .
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Post by Jesse Foster on Dec 1, 2011 23:50:08 GMT -5
Ok, So i think villains flatting range OTB vs a UTG opener might look something like this
TT-66, AQs-A7s, AQo-AJo, K9s+, KJo+, Q9s+, QJo, J9s+, T9s
He is probably raising flop with all better hands, and sometimes with flush/straight draws. Vs his better hands, we have about 25% equity, vs his semibluffs we have about 57% equity. Vs his overall raising range on the flop then, we have about 40% equity. so therefore calling flop is ok.
However, when villain follows through on the turn, esp for that size, it is likely that we are beat here a ton. He will sometimes slowdown with his draws on the turn, and if he does our equity is pretty poor. Also, when regs bet 80%+ of pot in these types of situations, they usually have it.
Also, I wouldn't put too much weight on the flop raise % given the small sample, that stat is going to converge pretty slowly. Another good stat to include would be his W$@sd, that will give you a good idea of his overall game. If it is above 52%, he is probably unlikely to fire a second barrel as a bluff in this type of situation.
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