Would You Fold Here? Other Thoughts Appreciated.

[derekeverett]

wt.ag/tPV0Yi

Ok first let me explain my UTG opening here. I hit a cold deck at this table and hadn't played a hand in about 30 hands. I figured it was time to remind people I was there.

My opponent in this hand was quite tight 6/6 and aggressive post flop. The aggression I had seen from him was a major factor in my deciding to not check to him in this pot at the flop or turn. I was certain he would bet so I decided to look strong instead. I hope this was a good line and that my bet sizing is ok.

At the river I give up. I didn't have my opponent on a premium hand as I wasn't 3-bet (His 3-bet was 22) but the board was right in his calling range and I felt was almost certainly behind.

But then he bets so small... I am 99% sure here that I'm beaten and he just wants $2 more.. but can I ever fold here? I'm getting like 6 to 1...

Any thoughts/suggestions are appreciated. Thanks.

[harez]

I think @ nl25 you should def fold this hand utg. Stick to suited con such as 89/910/J10

Flop bet is fine, however one small note, don't barrel ace high boards. If someone calls you on the flop they have it almost always.

About the turn, I don't think he is calling you on this flop without and A/quads/draw. His drawing hands consist of KQs K10S Q10s sometimes 78s. So yeah either your crushed or your crushed lol.

If you are working with equilab you should try plugging that range and see what kind of equity your getting on the turn.

I think check/folding turn is the most optimal play here

[derekeverett]

oh I agree with you totally.. like I inferred I would usually not open UTG with that hand.

Also, I was 99% sure I was beaten when he called the turn bet.. he was super aggressive but not stupid. I had no intention of calling a river bet but then he made it so small.. that's where I got a bit confused. It was unexpected. This guy was aggressive at every turn from what I had seen at the table and then he makes such a small river bet.

I dunno just seemed odd to me is all.

[Jesse Foster]

I think the open pre is a bit on the loose side, but ok. You are effectively not UTG but MP because it's only 5 handed.

Flop c-bet is fine, good dry board and we have equity.

Turn is probably better to check/call than bet ourselves. This bet does not really fall into the category of a value bet or a bluff. If he does bet, we will have 13 outs the vast majority of the time, or the best hand sometimes. So with roughly 30% equity we can call any bet below pot size. However, if you do hit you should probably lead because he will check back Ax a ton on the river if a club or J hits.

As played on the river, its just a fold given how nitty he is. A lot of his gutters improve on the river, and he has so few missed draws that we are just never good here.

[hullapple]

Tilting monkey as i am i probably would call it on a river. But yes.....i think its correct to fold here. Actually i am pretty sure its a fold.

2 barreling on A55 board is perfect, cause almost nobody folds a pocket pair here on this flop but they are folding a ton on turn. Betsizing is also good imo. As played fold river.

[jeremygibson]

I think the open is fine 5 handed. Personally it's 100% for me esp at 25nl give my post-flop edge is far superior. That being said, you have to consider who's at the table etc and if you feel comfortable playing against all of the opponents then i like it obv.

Post-flop your line is fine. I like betting twice unless you think he floats and stabs a lot. Betting twice makes the hand a bit easier to play, you take the pot down a decent amount w a turn bet anyway, you build a pot for the times you hit and hes not likely to bluff you on the river etc. Having said that the river is def a c/f 100% even w such a great price. You have 2 clubs in your hand making club combos few and far between, you rep Ax. Fish usually have betsizing tells like their sizing is equal to their hand strength etc but in this spot it changes clearly because he doesnt have initiative so its almost always a vbet.