NL600. Turn better way to act.

[aris]

Villain is a weak player, before this hand we had about 70 hands, his 3bet is 26% and I saw him 2 barrel in 3 bet pot before. His bet of 3/4 pot seams to be usuall.
The question is about turn. My thoughts are: we have enough odds just to call it OTT, but can be bluffed by weaker hands OTR, and I see him possible to do that. + we have at least 30% if he calls.
Or would it look much stronger to make a small raise? But its 100bb...
What do you think of this play?



Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $6(BB) Replayer
($569)
Hero ($645)

Dealt to Hero 9:heart: Q:heart:

Hero raises to $12, raises to $36, Hero calls $24

FLOP ($72) T:spade: 4:diamond: 8:heart:

bets $54, Hero calls $54

TURN ($180) T:spade: 4:diamond: 8:heart: 2:heart:

bets $135, Hero raises to $555 (AI), calls $344 (AI)

Same opponent. In addition to said before, he open raises 70%, cbet flop 50%. I see him calling very loose, so here he could possibly just pull his flash draw or a weak T.
I made a river push as I dont think with betting less we can push away hands like QT. And also if we dont do that..its like burning money. Or I may be wrong and we just have to give up..what do you think?


Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $6(BB) Replayer
Hero ($638)
($1,390)

Dealt to Hero A:spade: 6:spade:

raises to $18, Hero calls $12

FLOP ($36) 2:diamond: T:diamond: 4:diamond:

Hero checks, bets $27, Hero raises to $72, calls $45

TURN ($180) 2:diamond: T:diamond: 4:diamond: 3:club:

Hero bets $135, calls $135

RIVER ($450) 2:diamond: T:diamond: 4:diamond: 3:club: 9:club:

Hero bets $413 (AI)

[Jesse Foster]

For the first hand, jamming turn is definitely the best line. We are risking 555 to win 325, so our bluff would need to work about 60% of the time to be +EV. However, We have about 30% when called so our bluff only needs to work about 30-40% I believe. Not sure on the math of that, may check it later. If you just call, it makes it too easy for him to jam the river as a bluff with a hand that would have folded to our turn jam.

For the second hand, I think that check raising this flop with this hand with his low cbet frequency is prob a little to agro. Given how tight he is cbetting, his range is just too strong.

I think the turn follow through is ok, but I think once he calls turn we probably should shut down on river.

They key difference between this hand and the QsJs c/r we discussed on TdKd5d is villains cbetting frequency, and our equity when called.

When villain is only c-betting 50%, we don't need to attack in these situations too much.

Hope this helps!

Jesse

[aris]

Thanks for your answer.

I hope you dont mind if i post a messy hands sometimes, as I need to make sure I think in the right way.

[Jesse Foster]

No worries, the way you posted it was fine