nl 1k. Turn play.

[aris]

Short table. Weak opponent. Defends ~60% (3bet 8%). Have no idea what his lead otf means, but I take it as a bluff for general. After he continues I put him on any gutshot, straightdraw, flushdraw, and ~20% of the time on Q.
So the turn play..After he minraised me, I dont know what the right play is. I know that I have about 20% vs strong pair, so its enought to call, but the problem is that my outs may be dead if the 3rd flash card comes. What I also understand is that after his min raise I dont expect him to fold anything...at least very rare monkey bluffs.

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $10(BB) Replayer
($837)
Hero ($505)

Dealt to Hero J:spade: T:diamond:

Hero raises to $30, calls $20

FLOP ($60) 5:spade: Q:spade: 3:heart:

bets $20, Hero raises to $60, calls $40

TURN ($180) 5:spade: Q:spade: 3:heart: K:heart:

checks, Hero bets $120, raises to $240,

[Jesse Foster]

This is a very ugly spot.

First, we must set out our variables:

We are calling 120 into 540, so were getting about 4.5 to 1. We will only have 175 behind if we do call. We have 8 outs out of 46 cards, which works out to 4.5-1 to hit.

Ok so:

Amount Behind: 175
Odds to hit: 4.5-1
Pot Odds: 4.5-1

Plugging the numbers into the implied odds formula

(Pot Odds-Odds to hit)*Bet size= Amount we must make on future streets

(4.5-4.5)*120=0

So the turn call is neutral EV in a vacuum, so we are essentially freerolling the river. I wouldn't worry too much about our outs being no good, if they are it will only be a small frequency of the time, usually we are up against top pair+.

Remind me in our next session about this, I will have some homework for you to make this easier.